This Article Full Text (PDF) References Alert me when this article is cited Alert me if a correction is posted Services Email this article to a friend Similar articles in this journal Alert me to new issues of the journal Download to citation manager Citing Articles Citing Articles via Google Scholar Google Scholar Articles by Coleman, B. J. Articles by Lynch, A. K. Search for Related Content

Identifying the NCAA Tournament "Dance Card"

Department of Management, Marketing, and Logistics, University of North Florida, 4567 St. Johns Bluff Road, South Jacksonville, Florida 32224-2675
Stetson School of Business and Economics, Mercer University, 1400 Coleman Avenue, Macon, Georgia 31207

The NCAA Basketball Tournament selection committee annually selects the Division I men's teams that should receive at-large bids to the national championship tournament. Although its deliberations are shrouded in secrecy, the committee is supposed to consider a litany of team-performance statistics, many of which outsiders can reasonably estimate. Using a probit analysis on objective team data from 1994 through 1999, we developed an equation that accurately classified nearly 90 percent of 249 "bubble" teams during that time frame and over 85 percent for the 2000 tournament. Given the NCAA Tournament's nickname of the big dance, the equation is effectively the "dance card" that determined whether a team got an invitation from past committees and is also a tool that could aid decision making for future committees. The accuracy of the dance card, and the factors and weights included in it, suggest that the committee is fairly predictable in its decisions, despite barbs from fans, teams, and the media.

Key Words: RECREATION AND SPORTS; GAMES-GROUP DECISIONS—VOTING-COMMITTEES